Papers: Prints, Reprints, Tear Sheets, Downloads, and Photocopies

1211. Program Analysis Techniques: A Selected Bibliography (Washington, DC: Bureau of the Budget Library, Revised November 1966). Self-covered, side stapled. 40 pp. (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1212. Futures Bibliography (Sacramento, CA: POST, February 1987). Soft cover, side stapled. 10 pp. (8-1/2×11″ format).
1213. International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (New York: Macmillan, 1968). Vol. 12.
1214. “Is Economic Theory With It?” A symposium, Journal of the American Economic Association, Vol. 64, No. 3 (May 1974). Tear sheets. Corner-stapled.
1215. A miscellany of short (but complete) discussions of scenarios and scenario-writing. Photocopies; each corner-stapled, with a cover sheet presenting full bibliographic information.
1216. A miscellany of publications on PPBS, Photocopies; three-hole drilled; card cover. About 50 pp.
1217. “Growth — Yes, But Who for and How Fast? Three Horns of a Dilemma,” Study Encounter (World Council of Churches, 1973). Vol. 9, No. 4. 15 pp. Reprint.
1218. “Where the Big Econometric Models Go Wrong,” Business Week (March 30, 1981), pp. 70-73. Photocopy.
1219. “Uncertainty,” Papers prepared for the Insurance Forum by the Knowledge Management Team, Centre for Future Studies, UK (January 2002). Photocopy. 27 pp.
1220. Abrams, John W., “Military Applications of Operations Research,” Operations Research, Vol. 5, No. 3 (June 1957), pp. 434-440. Photocopy (two pages per sheet).
1221. Abt, Clark C., Richard Foster, and Robert H. Rea, “A Scenario Generating Methodology,” in James R. Bright and Milton E. Schoeman (eds.), A Guide to Practical Technological Forecasting (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1973), pp. 191-214. Photocopy.
1222. Album, Gerald, and Brian D. Murphy, “Extreme Response on a Likert Scale,” Psychological Reports, Vol. 63 (1988), pp. 501-502. Photocopy; fading but readable.
1223. Alexander, Tom, “The Deceptive Allure of National Planning,” Fortune (March 1977), pp. 148-156. Tear sheets.
1224. Allen, Joseph L., “The Relation of Strategy and Morality,” Ethics, Vol. 73, No. 3 (April 1963), pp. 167-178. Photocopy; underlining and marks in the margins.
1225. Amara, Roy, “Management in the 1980s,” Technology Review (April 1981), pp. 77-82. Photocopy.
1226. Amara, Roy, “The Futures Field: Searching for Definitions and Boundaries,” The Futurist, Vol. 15, No. 1 (February 1981), pp. 25-29; “The Futures Field: How To Tell Good Work from Bad,” The Futurist, Vol. 15, No. 2 (April 1981), pp. 63-71; and “The Futures Field: Which Direction Now?” The Futurist, Vol. 15, No. 3 (June 1981), pp. 42-46. Tear sheets; corner-stapled as one. Underlining throughout in ink.
1227. Amidon, Beulah, “The Future Is Already Here,” Survey Graphic, Vol. 34, No. 1 (January 1945), pp. 6-7, Photocopy.
1228. Anderson, Henry, “Guideposts for the Identification of Market Indicators,” Mississippi Valley Journal of Business and Economics, Vol. 2, No. 3 (Spring 1967), pp. 8-22. Tear sheets.
1229. Anderson, Joe, “Foresight Analysis in Research Funding Agencies: A UK Experiment,” Higher Education, Vol. 28 (1994), pp. 39-57. Reprint.
1230. Armstrong, J. Scott, “Advocacy as a Scientific Strategy: The Mitroff Myth,” Academy of Management Review, Vol. 5 (1980), pp. 509-11. A downloaded copy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1231. Armstrong, J. Scott, “The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: Review of Empirical Research,” Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 3 (1982), pp. 197-211. A downloaded copy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1232. Armstrong, J. Scott, “Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experimental Approach,” Group & Organization Studies, Vol. 7, No. 4 (1982), pp. 457-475. A downloaded copy (8-1/2 x 11” format).
1233. Armstrong, J. Scott, “Strategic Planning and Forecasting Fundamentals,” in Kenneth Albert, (ed.), The Strategic Management Handbook (New York: McGraw Hill, 1983). pp. 2-1 to 2-32. A downloaded copy (8-1/2 x 11″ format). Notes and underlining in pencil.
1234. Armstrong, J. Scott, “Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984,” Interfaces, Vol. 16, No. 1 (January-February 1986), pp. 89-103. A downloaded copy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1235. Armstrong, J. Scott, “Error Measures for Generalizing about Forecasting Methods: Empirical Considerations,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8 (1992), pp. 69-80. A downloaded copy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1236. Armstrong, J. Scott, “Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-Series Extrapolation,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 12 (1993), pp. 103-115. A downloaded copy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1237. Austin, Douglas V., and Thomas J. Scampini, “A Guide to Short-Term Strategic Planning,” The Bankers Magazine, Vol. 166, No. 6 (November-December 1983), pp. 62-68. Tear sheets.
1238. Avison, William R., and Gwynn Nettler, “World Views and Crystal Balls,” Futures (February 1976), pp. 1121. Reprint.
1239. Ayres, Leonard P., “The Uses of Statistics in War,” Lecture for the 1939-1940 Course at the Army Industrial College (Washington, DC), March 4, 1940. 12 pp. Photocopy; some underlining in red ink and marginal notes in pencil.
1240. Baldwin, Ian, Jr., “Thinking about a New World Order for the Decade 1990,” War/Peace Report (January 1970), pp. 3-8. Photocopy.
1241. Barton, Allen H., “Consensus and Conflict among American Leaders,” Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 38, No. 4 (1972), pp. 507-530. Photocopy.
1242. Bartunek, Jean M., and J. Keith Murnighan, “The Nominal Group Technique: Expanding the Basic Procedure and Underlying Assumptions,” Group & Organization Studies, Vol. 9, No. 3 (September 1984), pp. 417-432. Reprint.
1243. Basu, Shankar, and Roger G. Schroeder, “Incorporating Judgments in Sales Forecasts: Application of the Delphi Method at American Hoist & Derrick,” Management Science (1977). 10 pages. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format); corner-stapled; three-hole drilled.
1244. Beam, David R., and Cynthia C. Colella, “The Federal Role in the Eighties: Bigger, Broader, and Deeper or Smaller, Trimmer, and Cheaper?” Paper presented at the 41st National Conference of the American Society for Public Administration, April 1980. 29 pp. Photocopy.
1245. Becker, Harold S., “Constructing and Using Scenarios: An Aid to Strategic Planning and Decision Making,” World Future Society Bulletin (September-October 1982), pp. 13-24. In entire issue.
1246. Bell, Daniel, “The Future World Disorder: The Structural Context of Crises,” Foreign Policy, No. 27 (Summer 1977), pp. 109-135. Tear sheets.
1247. Bell, Daniel, “Ten Theories in Search of Policy: The Prediction of Soviet Behavior in the Social Sciences,” World Politics, Vol. 10, No. 3 (April 1958), pp. 327-365. Photocopy.
1248. Bell, Wendell, and Jeffrey K. Glick, “An Epistemology for the Futures Field: Problems and Possibilities of Prediction,” Futures (April 1989), pp. 115-135. Reprint.
1249. Bell, Wendell, “Values and the Future in Marx and Marxism,” Futures (March 1991), pp. 146-162. Reprint.
1250. Belonga, Michael T., “Are Economic Forecasts by Government Agencies Biased? Accurate?” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 70, No. 6 (November-December 1988), pp. 15-23. Tear sheets.
1251. Benson, Dennis K., Colleen McMahon, and Richard H. Sinnreich, “The Art of Scenario Design,” Simulation and Games, Vol. 3. No. 2 (December 1972). pp. 439-463. Photocopy.
1252. Beres, Louis Rent, “On Studying World Order: A Plea for Systematic Inquiry,” Policy Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 4 (December 1973), pp. 509-521. Photocopy.
1253. Bergner, Douglas, “Political Risk Analysis: An Asset Now, Soon a ‘Must!” Perspectives (April 1981), pp. 14. Photocopy; some underlining.
1254. Berkeley, Ellen Perry, “The New Gamesmanship: A Report on the New Urban Games,” The Architectural Forum, Vol. 129, No. 5 (December 1968), pp. 58-63. Photocopy.
1255. Blackett, P. M. S., “Operational Research,” Advancement of Science, Vol. 5, No. 17 (1948), pp. 26-38. Photocopy; fading but quite readable; some underlining and marginal notes.
1256. Boehm, George A. W., “How They Predict the Economic Future,” Think, Vol. 33, No. 4 (July-August 1967), pp. 7-11. Tear sheets.
1257. Boehm, George A. W., “Shaping Decisions with Systems Analysis,” Harvard Business Review (September-October 1976), pp. 91-99. Tear sheets.
1258. Bogaerts, R. F., “Probable Evolution of Telephony,” Electrical Communication, Vol. 38, No. 2 (1983), pp. 184-195. Photocopy.
1259. Bōhler, Eugen, “Psychological Prerequisites of Forecasting and Planning,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 4, No. 3 (1978), pp. 317-322. Photocopy.
1260. Boje, David M., and J. Keith Murnighan, “Group Confidence Pressure in Iterative Decisions,” Management Science, Vol. 28, No. I0 (October 1982), pp. 1187-1196. Reprint.
1261. Boucher, Wayne I., “The Future Environment for Technology Assessment,” in M. J. Cetron and B. Bartocha (eds.), Technology Assessment in a Dynamic Environment (New York: Gordon and Beach, 1973), pp. 401 - 414. Photocopy.
1262. Boucher, Wayne I., “Finding the Future: A Guide for Perplexed Managers,” MBA Magazine, Vol. 12, No. 7 (August/September 1978), pp. 48-57. Photocopy.
1263. Boucher, Wayne I., “What the Banking Industry May Look Like in 1985-2000,” American Banker (October 18, 1982), pp. 4, 14. Photocopy.
1264. Boucher, Wayne I., “The Futures Examination,” Futures Research Quarterly, Vol. 16, No. 4 (Winter 2000), pp. 5-10. Entire issue.
1265. Boulding, Kenneth E., “Dare We Take the Social Sciences Seriously?” American Psychologist, Vol. 22 (1967), pp. 879-887. Photocopy; underlining in red ink throughout.
1266. Boulding, Kenneth E., “The Scientific Revelation,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (September 1970), pp. 13-18. Tear sheets.
1267. Braga, John M., “The Future of the Actuarial Profession as Viewed in A.D. 1974,” Transactions of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 26 (March 1975), pp. 335-408. Reprint; side-stapled.
1268. Brandis, Evgeni, and Vladimir Dmitrevsky, “In the Land of Science Fiction,” in Robert Magidoff (ed.), Russian Science Fiction, 1969 (New York: New York University Press, 1969), pp. 3-10. Photocopy; underlined in red ink throughout.
1269. Bright, James R., “Evaluating Signals of Technological Change,” Harvard Business Review (January-February 1970), pp. 62-70. Photocopy; corner-stapled; three-hole drilled.
1270. Bright, James R., “Improving Forecast Validity by Analyzing Past Errors,” Lecture presented at Bright’s Technology Forecasting Workshop, Industrial Management Center, June 1973. 15 pp. Photocopy; three-hole drilled.
1271. Brown, Seyom, “Scenarios in Systems Analysis,” in E. S. Quade and W. I. Boucher (eds.) Systems Analysis and Policy Planning (New York: American Elsevier Publishing Co., 1968), pp. 298-310. Photocopy.
1272. Brusca, Robert A., “Recession or Recovery?” Challenge (July-August 1992), pp. 4-15. Photocopy.
1273. Brown, Lester, Christopher Flavin, and Sandra Postel, “Earth Day 2030,” World Watch, Vol. 3, No. 2 (March-April 1990), pp. 12-21. In entire issue.
1274. Bryant, John, Shocks, Learning, and Persistence, Staff Report 50 (Minneapolis: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Revised May 1980). 7 pp. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1275. Bryant, John, A Simple General Equilibrium Model of Depression, Staff Report 36 (Minneapolis: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, June 1978). 9 pp. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1276. Bullis, Harold, Technology Assessment, Issue Brief No. 1874743 (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Revised March 7, 1977). 8 pp. Computer printout, in CRS cover; corner-stapled.
1277. Bunn, D. W., and M. M. Mustafaoglu, “Forecasting Political Risk,” Management Science, Vol. 24, No. 15 (November 1978), pp. 1557-1567. Photocopy.
1278. Canterbery, E. Ray, “The Diminishing Uselessness of Economists in Business,” Mississippi Valley Journal of Business and Economics, Vol. 1, No. 1 (Fall 1965), pp. 1-13. Tear sheets.
1279. Carlson, John A., “Forecasting Errors and Business Cycles,” American Economic Review ,Vol. 57, No. 3 (June 1967), pp. 462-481. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format), two pages to a sheet.
1280. Cantril, Hadley, “The Prediction of Social Events,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, Vol. 33, No. 3 (July 1938), pp. 364-389. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format) with two pages to a sheet.
1281. Cantril, Hadley, “The Prediction of Social Events,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, Vol. 33, No. 3 (July 1938), pp. 364-389. Photocopy (faded but still readable) in 8-1/2 x 11″ format with two pages to a sheet, Notes in pencil throughout.
1282. Cantril, Hadley, “The World in 1952: Some Predictions,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, Vol. 38, No. 2, Clinical Supplement (April 1943), pp. 7-47. Photocopy.
1283. Cartwright, T. J., “Problems, Solutions, and Strategies: A Contribution to the Theory and Practice of Planning,” in Planning Models: The Analytic-Interactional Continuum (n.d.), pp. 119-132. Photocopy.
1284. Cares, Bernard, “Opportunities and Pitfalls of Future-Oriented Research,” in G. R. Urban (ed.), Can We Survive Our Future? A Symposium (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1971), pp. 351-367. Photocopy, with underlining in red ink throughout.
1285. Cares, Bernard, “The Future of Work: An Outline of a Method for Scenario Construction,” Futures (October 1978), pp. 405-410. Photocopy.
1286. Cetron, Marvin J., and Audrey Clayton, “Social Forecasting: A Practical Approach,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 7, No. 4 (1975), pp. 339-355. Photocopy.
1287. Cetron, Marvin J., Wanda Rocha, and Rebecca Luckins, “Long-Term Trends Affecting the United States,” The Futurist (July-August 1988), pp. 29-40. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1288. Chan, Jason C., “Response-Order Effects in Likert-Type Scales,” Educational and Psychological Measurement, Vol. 51 (1991), pp. 531-540. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format); two pages to a sheet.
1289. Charney, Melvin, “Environmental Conjecture: In the Jungle of the Grand Prediction,” in Stanford Anderson (ed.), Planning for Diversity and Choice (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1968), pp. 313-334. Photocopy. Marks in the margin in red ink.
1290. Chapman, Peter F., “A Method for Exploring the Future,” Long Range Planning (February 1976), pp. 2-11. Photocopy.
1291. Chase, W. Howard, “Issue Management Revisited: From Concept to Confusion to Back Again,” The Issue Commentary (Summer 1992). Five-page newsletter (8-1/2 x 11″ format), with paper cover.
1292. Christakis, Alexander N., “The Limits of Systems Analysis in Economic and Social Development Planning,” presentation at the Jerusalem Conference on Information Technology, August 1971, Photocopy. 27 pp.
1293. Christakis, Alexander N., and Richard P. Wakefield, “A Futures-Creative and Values-Sensitive Policy Science Paradigm,” Paper presented at the Rome Special Conference on Futures Research, September 1973. ii + 21 pp. Photocopy.
1294. Christakis, Alexander N., Samuel Globe, and Kazuhiko Kawamura, “Forecasting Science and Industry: Science Forum Approach,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 13 (1979), pp. 107-129. Photocopy.
1295. Clapham, W. B., Jr., R. F. Pestel, and H. Arnaszus, “On the Scenario Approach to Simulation Modeling for Complex Policy Assessment and Design,” Policy Sciences, Vol. 11 (1979), pp. 157-177. Photocopy.
1296. Clarke, I. F., “Voices Prophesying War: Problems in Research,” Extrapolation, Vol. 9, No. 2 (May 1968), pp. IX-26 to IX-32. Photocopy, with some minor pencil marks.
1297. Coates, Joseph F., “Antiintellectualism and Other Plagues on Managing the Future,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 4 (1973), pp. 243-262. Reprint. Underlining and marks in the margin throughout.
1298. Coates, Joseph F., “Why Think about the Future? Some Administrative-Political Perspectives,” Public Administration Review (September-October 1976), pp. 580-585. Photocopy.
1299. Coates, Joseph F., “What Is a Public Policy Issue?” Paper presented at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Denver, February 23, 1977. Photocopy. 37 pp.
1300. Coates, Joseph F., “A Chrestomathy of Flawed Forecasts,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 45 (1994), pp. 307-311. Reprint.
1301. Cole, Sam, and Graciela Chichilnisky, “Modeling with Scenarios: Technology in North-South Development,” Futures (August 1973), pp. 303-321. Photocopy.
1302. Collopy, Fred, and J. Scott Armstrong, “Expert Opinions about Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8 (1992), pp. 575-582. Downloaded copy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1303. Crane, Steven E., “Developing a Leading Indicator Series for a Metropolitan Area,” Economic Development Quarterly, Vol. 7, No. 3 (August 1993), pp. 267-281. Photocopy.
1304. Crews, Joseph M., “Econometric Models: The Monetarist and Non-Monetarists Views Compared,” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Monthly Review (February 1973), pp. 1-12.
1305. Croushore, Dean, “Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review (November-December 1993), pp. 3-15. In entire issue. (See also Item 1720, which includes many copies of this survey and another explanation of its significance.)
1306. Croushore, Dean, “How Useful Are Forecasts of Corporate Profits?” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review (September-October 1999), pp. 3-12. Tear sheets.
1307. Dalkey, Norman C., Delphi: Some Basic Considerations, Paper CCBS-TM-37 (Los Angeles: Center for Computer-Based Behavioral Studies, University of California, February 1973). 32 pp. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11’ format).
1308. Dalkey, Norman C., Group Decision Analysis, Paper UCLA-ENG-7571 (Los Angeles: UCLA School of Engineering and Applied Science, August 1975). v + 40 pp. Bound report (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1309. Daniels, Robert Vincent, “Fate and Will in the Marxian Philosophy of History,” Journal of the History of Ideas, Vol. 21, No. 4 (October/December 1960), pp. 538-582. Photocopy.
1310. Darracott, H. T., Technological Forecast Methodology (U.S. Army, Advanced Materiel Concepts Agency, n.d. [1967?] 29 pp. Briefing package; AMCA cover, corner-stapled.
1311. Dator, James A., Comments on the Hawaii Senate's Seminar 'On Planning,' Working Paper 3 (University of Hawaii Program in Futures Research, Social Science Research Institute and Department of Political Science, January 1973). 26 pp. Soft cover; side-stapled (8-1/2 x 11" format).
1312. David-Floyd, Robbie E., "Storying Corporate Futures: The Shell Scenarios," International Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. I (1996). Photocopy. 28 pp. Notes in red ink and pencil throughout.
1313. Davis, Michael M., "More Things Than One: Health—Today and Tomorrow," Survey Graphic, Vol. 34, No. 8 (August 1945), pp. 342-343. Photocopy, fading but readable.
1314. De Boer, Harry F., and Pieter A. Binsbergen, "Decision Making Under Uncertainty: The Saaty Method," Paper presented at the Eighth International Symposium on Forecasting, Amsterdam, June 1988. 10 pp. on A4 paper; corner stapled.
1315. Decker, Craig A., "A Preliminary Assessment of the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment," Journal of the International Society for Technology Assessment (June 1975), pp. 5-25. Photocopy.
1316. Dede, Christopher, "Educational, Social, and Ethical Implications of Technological Innovation," manuscript of article to appear in the journal, Programmed Learning and Educational Technology, 28 pp. (8-1/2 x 11" format). Personal note from the author on the title page.
1317. De Jouvenel, Bertrand, "The Language of Time," in The Future Is Tomorrow: 17 Prospective Studies (The Hague: Martinus Nijhoff, 1972), Vol. 2, pp. 475-502. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11" format), two pages to a sheet.
1318. Dias Carneiro, O. A., "Notes on the Structure of an Econo-Political Model," unpublished manuscript from MONTOR (Montreal Organizacao Industrial e Economia), Rio de Janeiro, no date [1975?]. 15 pp. Photocopy.
1319. Dolan, Robert J., Analyzing Consumer Perceptions (Note 9-599-110, revised June 28, 2000, 13 pp.) and Perceptual Mapping: A Manager’s Guide (Note 9-590-121, July 5, 1990, 11 pp.), two case notes prepared by Prof. Dolan for discussion in classes at the Harvard Business School. Three-hold drilled (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1320. Dollard, John, “Under What Conditions Do Opinions Predict Behavior?” Public Opinion Quarterly (Winter 1948-1949), pp. 623-632.
1321. Doswell, Chuck, and Harold Brooks, “Probabilistic Forecasting-A Primer,” paper posted on n.d. [1990?]. 14 pp. Downloaded version.
1322. Dror, Yehezkel, “Policy Analysis: A New Professional Role in Government,” Public Administration Review, Vol. XXVII, No. 3 (September 1967), pp. 197-203. Photocopy in 8-1/2 x 11″ format.
1323. Dror, Yehezkel, “Small Powers Nuclear Policy: Research Methodology and Exploratory Analysis,” The Jerusalem Journal of International Relations, Vol. 1, No. 1 (Fall 1975), pp. 29-40. Reprint.
1324. Dror, Yehezkel, “Some Fundamental Philosophical, Psychological and Intellectual Assumptions of Futures Studies,” The Future as an Academic Discipline, Ciba Foundation Symposium 36 (Elsevier, North-Holland, 1975), pp. 145-165. Reprint.
1325. Drucker, Peter F., “The Changed World Economy,” Foreign Affairs (Spring 1986), pp. 768-791. Photocopy. Occasional underlining and marks in the margin.
1326. Drucker, Peter F., “The New Organization,” Report on a paper presented by Drucker at the SEI Center for Advanced Studies in Management, The Wharton School, April 7, 1993 (revised 21 August 1993). 28 pp. Photocopy.
1327. Ducot, C., “Futures Research Scenarios and Time Succession,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 17 (1980), pp. 51-59. Photocopy.
1328. Ducot, C., and G. J., Lubben, “A Typology for Scenarios,” Futures, Vol. 12, No. 1 (February 1980), pp. 51-57. Photocopy. Some notes and underlining in red ink.
1329. Duncan, Otis Dudley, “Social Forecasting—The State of the Art,” The Public Interest, No. 17 (Fall 1969), pp. 88-118. Photocopy; underlined in red ink, with pencil or ink notes in the margins throughout.
1330. Duncan, Otis Dudley, and Magnus Stenbeck, “Are Likert Scales Unidimensional?” Social Science Research, Vol. 16 (1987), pp. 245-259. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format), two pages to a sheet.
1331. Duperrin, J. C., and M. Godes, “SMIC 74-A Method for Constructing and Ranking Scenarios,” Futures, Vol. 7, No. 4 (August 1975), pp. 302-312. Photocopy.
1332. Durand, Jacques, “A New Method for Constructing Scenarios,” Futures, Vol. 4, No. 4 (December 1972), pp. 325-330. Photocopy.
1333. Edmunds, Stahrl, “Which Way America? Six Scenarios for the Future of the United States,” The Futurist, Vol. 13, No. 1 (February 1979), pp. 5-12. Tear sheets.
1334. Ehrlich, Paul, “Eco-Catastrophe,” in Franklin Tugwell (ed.), Search for Alternatives (Item 583), pp. 186-196. Photocopy.
1335. Eldridge, H. Wentworth, “University Education in Futures Studies: A Mark III Survey,” Futures (February 1975), pp. 15-30. Tear sheets.
1336. Eldridge, H. Wentworth, “Future Studies at the University,” Fields Within Fields, No. 14 (Winter 1975), pp. 69-80. Photocopy.
1337. Emery, Fred E., “The Fifth Wave? Embarking on the Next Forty Years,” Human Futures, Vol. 1, No. 4 (Winter 1978), pp. 235-246. Photocopy.
1338. Emery, Fred E., “The Role of Futures Studies in Business Strategic Planning,” The Journal of Business Strategy (1984?), pp. 40-46. Photocopy.
1339. Enthoven, Alain C., “Managing DOD Programs,” Astronautics and Aeronautics, Vol. 6, No. 10 (October 1968), pp. 92-97. Photocopy (faded but readable).
1340. Enzer, Selwyn, “Energy Policy: A Failure of Foresight,” Los Angeles Business and Economics, Vol. 5, No. 1 (Winter 1980), pp. 12-17. Photocopy.
1341. Ewing, Raymond P., “The Uses of Futurist Techniques in Issues Management,” Public Relations Quarterly (Winter 1979), 4 pp. Reprint.
1342. Feibleman, James K., “The Human Future from Scientific Findings,” With commentary by Richard de George, Proceedings of the American Catholic Philosophical Association (Washington, DC: The Catholic University of America, 1968). Card covers. 13 pp.
1343. Fellner, William, “Trends in the Activities Generating Technological Progress,” The American Economic Review (1970), pp. 1-29. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 14″ format), two pages per sheet.
1344. Fiene, Jeanne R., “Metaphors of Chaos Theory and Some Implications for Educational Leadership in Democratic Schools,” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Educational Research Association, New York, April 11, 1996. Photocopy.
1345. FitzGerald, Jerry, “Developing and Ranking Threat Scenarios,” EDPACS: The EDP Audit Control and Security Newsletter, Vol. 6, No. 3 (1978), pp. 1-5. Photocopy.
1346. Flaskerud, Jacquelyn H., “Is the Likert Scale Format Culturally Biased?” Nursing Research, Vol. 37, No. 3 (May-June 1988), pp. 185-186.
1347. Fomby, Thomas B., “A Comparison of Judgmental and Econometric Forecasts of the Economy: The Business Week Survey,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review (September 1982), pp. 1-10. Tear sheets.
1348. Fontela, Emilio, and André Gabus, “Events and Economic Forecasting Models,” Futures (August 1974), pp. 329-333. Reprint.
1349. Fox, Peter D., and Dan G. Haney, “Sonic Topics Relating to Military Cost-Effectiveness Analysis,” paper presented at the 29th National Meeting of the Operations Research Society of American, May 1966 (Menlo Park, CA: Stanford Research Institute, May 1966). 13 pp. (8-1/2 x 11″ format), with SRI cover sheet; corner stapled.
1350. French, Hilary F., Clearing the Air: A Global Agenda, Worldwatch Paper 94 (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, January 1990). 54 pp. Printed booklet (5-1/2 x 8-1/2″ format).
1351. Friedman, Milton, “The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase its Profits,” The New York Times Magazine (September 13, 1970), pp. 32++. Tear sheets.
1352. Friend, Irwin, and Paul Taubman, “A Short-Term Forecasting Model,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46, No. 3 (August 1964), pp. 229-235. Photocopy.
1353. Fritsch, Bruno, and Gebhard Kirchgässner, Demand-Side and Supply-Side Economics and the Future, Schriften des Instituts fur Wirtschaftsforschung der Eidenössischen Technischen Hochschule Zurich, No. 73, reprinted from K. W. Deutsch, A Markovits, and J. Platt (eds.), Advances in the Social Sciences, 1900-1980: What, Who, Where, How? (Cambridge, MA: Abt Associates and the University Press of America, 1986), pp. 127-154. Soft cover.
1354. Gale, Morten, and Paul Alelyunas, “The Systems Man,” Space/Aeronautics, Vol. 46, No. 7 (December 1966), pp. 81-87. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1355. Gale, Richard M., and Irving Thalbert, “The Generality of Prediction,” Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 62, No. 8 (April 15, 1965), pp. 195-210. Photocopy.
1356. Garvey, George, “Kondratieff’s Theory of Lone Cycles,” in Alvin H. Hansen and Richard V. Clemente (eds.), Readings in Business Cycles and National Income (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1953), pp. 438-466. Photocopy.
1357. Gérardin, Lucien, “Study of Alternative Futures: A Scenario Writing Method,” in James A. Bright and Milton E. F. Schoeman (eds.), A Guide to Practical Technological Forecasting (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1973), pp. 276-288. Photocopy.
1358. Gérardin, Lucien, “Exploratory Planning in an Electronics Company,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 6, No. 3 (September 1973), pp. 75-78. Photocopy.
1359. Gerjuoy, Herbert G., and T. Gerald Owen, “On-Line Forecasting Capabilities: FUTURSCAN and Its Alternatives,” Paper presented at the On-Line Conference, New York, March 1980. 23 pp. Photocopy.
1360. Gerjuoy, Herbert G., “So You Want Your Organization To Change? How Will You Manage It?” in Herbert G. Gerjuoy (ed.), Organizational Change: A Basic Survival Kit (West Hartford, CT: Program Strategics, Inc., November 1981), pp. 3-16. Photocopy.
1361. Gershuny, J., “The Choice of Scenarios,” Futures (December 1976), pp. 496-508.
1362. Gioscia, Victor, “On Social Time,” in H. Yaker, H. Osmond, and F. Cheek (eds.), The Future of Time (Garden City, NY: 1971), pp. 73-141. Photocopy; two pages to a sheet.
1363. Gilfillan, S. Colum, “The Atomic Bombshell,” Survey Graphic, Vol. 34, No. 9 (September 1945), pp. 357-358. Photocopy.
1364. Godet, Michel, The Crisis in Forecasting and the Emergence of the ‘Prospective’ Approach (New York: Unitar and Pergamon Press, 1979), pp. 35-92. Photocopy.
1365. GoIs, A. George, “Input/Output in Short-Term Forecasting,” Paper presented at the Institute for Interindustry Data symposium, New York, May 12, 1971. 15 pp. Photocopy.
1366. Gordon, Charles, “The Growth of Operational Research, 1939-64,” typescript text on A4; corner stapled. 14 pp. Photocopy; starting to fade, but still readable.
1367. Gordon, Theodore J., “The New Determinism,” Paper presented at Stanford University, April 17, 1967. 32 pp. Photocopy.
1368. Gordon, Theodore J., and Arthur L. Shef, National Programs and Progress of Technological Societies, Douglas Paper 4964 (Missile & Space Systems Division, McDonnell Douglas Corporation, March 1968). 62 pp. Photocopy.
1369. Gordon, Theodore J., and H. Hayward, “Initial Experiments with the Cross Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting,” Futures, Vol. 1, No. 2 (December 1968), pp. 100-116. Pristine reprint.
1370. Gordon, Theodore J., “The Feedback Between Technology and Values,” separately bound copy of Gordon’s chapter in the 1969 Baier-Rescher book, Values and the Future (Item 26). 44 pp.
1371. Gordon, Theodore J., A Discussion of Some Methods of Technology Assessment, Report 138-01-17 (Glastonbury, CT: The Futures Group, April 1, 1974). 29 pp. Photocopy; self-covered; corner-stapled.
1372. Gordon, Theodore J., and John Stover, Using Perceptions and Data about the Future To Improve the Simulation of Complex Systems (Glastonbury, CT: The Futures Group, April 1975). 33 pp. Self-covered photocopy; corner-stapled.
1373. Gottschalk, Louis, “Foreword” and Chap. 8, “Categories of Historiographical Generalization,” in Louis Gottschalk (ed.), Generalization in the Writing of History, A Report of the Committee on Historical Analysis of the Social Science Research Council (Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1963), pp. v-xii and 113-129, respectively. Photocopy, underlined in red ink throughout.
1374. Granger, Charles H., “The Hierarchy of Objectives,” Harvard Business Review, Vol. 42, No. 3 (May-June 1964), pp. 63-74. Reprint in HBR Reprint covers (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1375. Gray, Daniel H., “Uses and Misuses of Strategic Planning,” Harvard Business Review (January-February 1986), pp. 89-97. Photocopy; three-hole punched.
1376. Gray, Paul L., and Melvin Tanchel, “Analysis and Technology,” Air University Review, Vol. 18, No. 1 (November-December 1966), pp. 45-54. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1377. Gregory, Marshall W., “Do Futures Studies Really Help? ‘Futures Research’ and Present Troubles,” Change (January/February 1988), pp. 50-53. Photocopy.
1378. Greiner, Larry E., “Evolution and Revolution as Organizations Grow,” Harvard Business Review (July-August 1972), pp. 37-46. Photocopy.
1379. Gross, Bertram M., “Planning in an Era of Social Revolution,” Public Administration Review, Vol. 31, No. 2 (May-June 1971), pp. 259-297. Photocopy.
1380. Gross, Bertram M., and Jeffrey D. Straussman, “The Social Indicators Movement,” Social Policy (September-October 1974), pp. 43-54. Photocopy; corner-stapled; three-hole drilled. Occasional pencil marks.
1381. Gross, Robert N., An Introduction to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, RAC Paper RAC-P-5 (McLean, VA: Research Analysis Corporation, July 1965). 27 pp. Self-covered photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format); two pages to a sheet.
1382. Hacker, Andrew, “Up for Grabs,” New York Review of Books, April 30, 1981, pp. 8++ Tear sheets.
1383. Hall, William K., “Forecasting Techniques for Use in the Corporate Planning Process,” Managerial Planning (November-December 1972), pp. 5-10, 33. Photocopy.
1384. Halstead, J. Phillip, Issues Management and Issues Networking: A National and Regional Plan (Oakland, CA: The Clorox Company, January 31, 1985). Soft cover. 18 pp. (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1385. Hamilton, H. Ronald, Scenarios in Corporate Planning, Economics and Policy Analysis Occasional Paper No. 14 (Columbus, OH: Battelle Memorial Institute, September 1980). Soft cover; side stapled.
1386. Hanushek, Eric A., “The Policy Research Markets,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Vol. 9, No. 2 (1990), pp. 146-154. Photocopy.
1387. Harris, Ethan S., “Tracking the Economy with the Purchasing Managers’ Index,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review (Autumn 1991), pp. 61-69. Photocopy.
1388. Hart, David K., and William G. Scott, “The Organizational Imperative,” Administration & Society, Vol. 7, No. 3 (November 1975), pp. 259-285. Photocopy, with underlining and marks in the margins.
1389. Haveman, Robert H., “Policy Analysis and Evaluation Research after Twenty Years,” Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 16, No. 2 (Winter 1987), pp. 191-218. Photocopy.
1390. Hay, George, “Science Fiction: Mankind’s Early Warning System,” Futures, Vol. 5, No. 5 (October 1973), pp. 491-494. Photocopy.
1391. Hayes, James H., “Systems Analysis,” Army, Vol. 14, No. 7 (February 1964), pp. 41-45. Photocopy.
1392. Hayes, James H., “Basic Concepts of Systems Analysis,” Military Review, Vol. 45, No. 4 (April 1965), pp. 413. Photocopy.
1393. Hayes, Robert H., and William J. Abernathy, “Managing Our Way to Economic Decline,” Harvard Business Review (July-August 1980), pp. 67-77. Photocopy. Annotations and underlining throughout.
1394. Hayes, Robert H., “Strategic Planning—Forward in Reverse?” Harvard Business Review (November-December 1985), pp. 111-119. Photocopy; three-hole punched.
1395. Henderson, Hazel, “Risk, Uncertainty and Economic Futures,” Best’s Review (May 1978), pp. 10, 12, 16, 103-111. Photocopy.
1396. Henderson, William M., “The Analysis Mystique,” Air University Review, Vol. 18, No. 2 (January-February 1967), pp. 35-45. Photocopy.
1397. Henshel, Richard L., and Leslie W. Kennedy, “Self-Altering Prophecies: Consequences for the Feasibility of Social Prediction,” General Systems, Vol. 18 (1973), pp. 119-126. Reprint.
1398. Henshel, Richard L., “Effects of Disciplinary Prestige on Predictive Accuracy: Distortions from Feedback Loops,” Futures (April 1975), pp. 92-106. Reprint, inscribed by the author.
1399. Henshel, Richard L., “Evolution of Controversial Fields: Lessons from the Past for Futures,” Futures (October 1981), pp. 101-412. Reprint, inscribed by the author.
1400. Hirschhorn, Larry, Scenario Writing: A Developmental Approach, Paper 79-03 (Philadelphia: Social System Sciences Program, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 1979). 22 pp. Card covers; side-stapled (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1401. Hoehn, James C., William C. Gruben, and Thomas B. Fromby, “Time Series Forecasting Models of the Texas Economy: A Comparison,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Report (May 1984). pp. 11-23, Tear sheets.
1402. Hoos, Ida R., “Systems Analysis in Government Administration: A Critical Analysis,” Data on Defense and Civil Systems (November 1968), pp. 28-33. Photocopy in 8-1/2 x 11″ format.
1403. Hoos, Ida R., “A Realistic Look at the Systems Approach to Social Problems,” Datamation, Vol. 15, No. 2 (February 1969), pp. 223-228. Photocopy in 8-1/2 x 11″ format.
1404. Houghton, Neal D., “Historical Bases for Prediction in International Relations: Some Implications for American Foreign Policy,” Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 17, No. 4 (December 1964), pp. 632-658. Photocopy, with occasional marks in the margin in red ink.
1405. Hubbard, Barbara Marx, “The Future of Futurism,” The Futurist, Vol. 17, No. 2 (April 1983), pp. 52-58. Photocopy.
1406. Humphrey, Hubert H., “Comments on the Draft 1974 National Growth Report,” Congressional Record (October 16, 1974). 13 pp. Reprint.
1407. Humphrey, Thomas M., “The Dismal Science Revisited,” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Monthly Review (March 1973), pp. 2-13. Photocopy.
1408. Hurst, David K., “Why Strategic Management is Bankrupt,” Organizational Dynamics (1986), pp. 5-27. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1409. Hymes, Dell, “Responsibilities of Dissent,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 24, No. 9 (November 1968), pp. 29-34. Tear sheets. Underlining in pencil.
1410. Isenberg, Daniel J., “How Senior Managers Think,” Harvard Business Review (November-December 1984), pp. 81-90. Photocopy; three-hole punched.
1411. Ishikawa, M., M. Toda, S. Mori, and Y. Kaya, “An Application of the Extended Cross Impact Method to Generating Scenarios of Social Change in Japan,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 18, No. 3 (November 1980), pp. 217-233. Photocopy.
1412. Israeli, Nathan, “Some Aspects of the Social Psychology of Futurism,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, Vol. 25 (July 1930), pp. 121-132. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11” format), with two pages to a sheet.
1413. Israeli, Nathan, “Wishes Concerning Improbable Future Events: Reactions to the Future,” Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 16, No. 5 (October 1932), pp. 584-588. Photocopy.
1414. Jacoby, E. H., “What is a Social Problem?” Center Magazine (1980[?]), pp. 35-40. Photocopy; some marks in the margins.
1415. Jantsch, Erich, Technological Planning and Social Futures (London: Associated Business Programmers, 1972), Chap. 6, “Key Approaches to Forecasting,” pp. 79-92. Photocopy.
1416. Jenkins, John A., Creating the Future: Corporate Strategists Shape the 21st Century (Bureau of National Affairs, 1979). 16 pp. (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1417. Johnson, Richard, “This Woman Knows Our Future. That’s Why Big Business Pays Her Millions. Who is Faith Popcorn?” The London Sunday Times Magazine (December 24, 2000), pp. 32-36. Tear sheets.
1418. Johnson, R. H., and Kenneth J. Crepas, “Decision Making Under Uncertainty: A New Technique,” Atlantic Economic Review, Vol. 27 (July-August 1977), pp. 8-12. Photocopy.
1419. Jones, Harry, and Brian C. Twiss, Forecasting Technology for Planning Decisions (New York: PBI: A Petrocelli Book, 1978), pp. 60-67, 74-79, 86-87, 97-103, 141-154, 236-237. Photocopy.
1420. [Jungk, Robert,] “From the Actual Economy System to Alternative Economy Scenarios,” 20-page unsigned paper, photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format), two pages to a sheet. Dated June 25, 1988.
1421. Kadushin, Charles, “Who Are the Elite Intellectuals?” The Public Interest, No. 29 (Fall 1992), pp. 109-125. In the entire issue.
1422. Kaempffert, Waldemar, “Aladdin’s Wonderful Lamp,” Survey Graphic, Vol. 34, No. 3 (March 1945), pp. 89-105. Photocopy, fading but readable.
1423. Kaempffert, Waldemar, “Television in 1960,” Survey Graphic, Vol. 34, No. 8 (August 1945), pp. 344-350. Photocopy, fading but readable.
1424. Kahn, Herman, “The Alternative World Futures Approach,” in Franklin Tugwell (ed.), Search for Alternatives (Item 583), pp. 103-146, Photocopy; underlining throughout (before photocopying).
1425. Kahn, Herman, and John B. Phelps, “The Economic Present and Future: A Chartbook for the Decades Ahead,” The Futurist (June 1979), pp. 202-222. Photocopy.
1426. Kassalow, Everett M., “Some Labor Futures in the United States,” Paper presented at a Special Interest Conference on Futures Research sponsored by Payment Systems, Inc., New York, May 1979. 29 pp. A CRS report with a PSI cover sheet (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1427. Kassler, Peter, “Scenarios for World Energy: Barricades of New Frontiers?” Long Range Planning, Vol. 28, No. 6 (December 1995), pp. 38-47.
1428. Kastenbaum, Robert, “The Dimensions of Future Time Perspective: An Experimental Analysis,” The Journal of General Psychology, Vol. 65 (October 1961), pp. 203-218. Photocopy.
1429. Kastenbaum, Robert, “The Direction of Time Perspective: I. The Influence of Affective Set,” The Journal of General Psychology, Vol. 73 (October 1965), pp. 189-201. Photocopy.
1430. Keesling, Karen, “The Year 2000 and the Prospect for American Women,” presented at a Special Interest Conference on Futures Research sponsored by Payment Systems, Inc., New York, May 1979. 17 pp. A CRS report with a PSI cover sheet (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1431. Kemp, Arthur, “Economic Systems: Squaring the Ideological Compass,” Modern Age, Vol. 13, No. 1 (Winter 1968-1969), pp. 19-28. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1432. Kent, Glenn A., “On Analysis,” Air University Review, Vol. XVIII, No. 4 (May-June 1967), pp. 50-55. In entire issue.
1433. Keran, Michael W., Economic Theory and Forecasting, Reprint Series No. 21 from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (March 1967), pp. 7-16. In FRB covers; saddle stapled (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1434. Keran, Michael W., Expectations, Money, and the Stock Market, Reprint Series No. 63 from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (January 1971), pp. 16-31. In FRB covers; saddle stapled (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1435. Ketelhöhn, Werner, “Take Time To Think Out Your Business Challenges,” European Management Journal, Vol. 13, No. 4 (1995), pp. 443-451. Tear sheets.
1436. Kiefer, David M., “The Futures Business,” Chemical & Engineering News, Vol. 47 (August 4, 1969), p. 23, and Vol. 47 (August 11, 1969), pp. 62-78. Like new.
1437. Kiefer, David M., “The Futures Business,” Chemical & Engineering News, Vol. 47 (August 11, 1969), pp. 62-75.
1438. Kiel, L. Douglas, “Nonlinear Dynamical Analysis: Assessing Systems Concepts in a Government Agency,” Public Administration Review, Vol. 53, No. 2 (March/April 1993), pp. 143-153. Photocopy.
1439. Kim, W. Chan, and Renée Mauborgne, “Value Innovation: The Strategic Logic of High Growth,” Harvard Business Review (January-February 1997), pp. 104-112. Photocopy. Underlined here and there in red ink.
1440. Kim, W. Chan, and Renée Mauborgne, “Fair Process: Managing in the Knowledge Economy,” Harvard Business Review (July-August 1997), pp. 65-75. Photocopy. Underlined here and there in red ink.
1441. Kim, W. Chan, and Renée Mauborgne, “Creating New Market Space,” Harvard Business Review (January-February 1999), pp. 83-93. Photocopy. Underlined here and there in red ink.
1442. Kim, W. Chan, and Renée Mauborgne, “Knowing a Winning Business Idea When You See One,” Harvard Business Review (September-October 2000), pp. 129-137. Fax copy; poor quality, but readable. Underlined here and there in red ink.
1443. King, William R., “Systems Analysis at the Public-Private Marketing Frontier,” Journal of Marketing, Vol. 33 (January 1969), pp. 84-89. Photocopy in 8-1/2 x 11″ format.
1444. Klein, Harold E., and William Newman, “How To Use SPIRE: A Systematic Procedure for Identifying Relevant Environments for Strategic Planning,” The Journal of Business Strategy (1979 [?]), pp. 32-45. Photocopy.
1445. Klein, Harold E., “Structuring Forecast Models for Strategic Environmental Analysis,” Modeling and Simulation, Vol. 10, Proceedings of the Tenth Annual Pittsburgh Conference (Instrument Society of America, 1979), pp. 1319-1322. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format), two pages to a sheet.
1446. Klein, Harold E., and Robert E. Linneman, “The Use of Scenarios in Corporate Planning—Eight Case Histories,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 14, No. 5 (1981), pp. 69-77. Photocopy.
1447. Kornbluh, Marvin (ed.), Selected Profiles of Future Technology (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, March 1978), 30 pp. Self-covered; corner-stapled.
1448. Kramer, Fred A., “Policy Analysis as Ideology,” Public Administration Review (September-October 1975), pp. 509-517. Photocopy; some underlining.
1449. Kurtz, Paul, et al., “Special Report: Astrological Fallout,” The Humanist (November-December 1975), pp. 20-27, and Bart J. Bok et al., “The Astrology Debate Continues,” The Humanist (January-February 1976), pp. 28-36. Tear sheets.
1450. Lahr, Michael L., A Perspective of Interactive Planning, Economics and Policy Analysis Occasional Paper No. 22 (Columbus, OH: Battelle, June 1981). 19 pp. In Battelle soft covers; side-stapled.
1451. Lamson, Robert W., “Policy Dialogues: A Key to Solving the Problems We Face While Increasing America’s Capacity for Self-Government,” National Science Foundation, n.d. [1978?]. 36 pp. Photocopy; corner-stapled.
1452. Lamson, Robert W., “Checklist of Important Questions Concerning Policy and the Future,” National Science Foundation, n.d. [1978?], 8 pp. Photocopy; corner-stapled.
1453. Lamson, Robert W., “Technology Assessment and Futures Research: Some Important Concepts and Strategies,” Paper presented at the Second International Congress on Technology Assessment, Ann Arbor, MI, October 25, 1976. 12 pp. Photocopy.
1454. Lamson, Robert W., “Technology Assessment: Concepts and Strategies,” Paper presented at the Technology Assessment Symposium, Office of Science Coordination, FDA, Washington, 1983. 28 pp.
1455. Laqueur, Walter, “The Next Ten Years,” Harper’s Magazine, Vol. 249, No. 1495 (December 1974), pp. 68-76, Photocopy.
1456. Leveson, Irving, The Economics of the Twenty-First Century (Marlboro, NJ: Leveson Consulting, September 12, 1993). 16 pp. (8-1/2 x 11” format).
1457. Lichtheim, George, “The Great Transformation: Ideas That Shaped Contemporary History,” Commentary, Vol. 27, No. 1 (January 1959), pp. 67-77. Tear sheets.
1458. Limkulhler, Ferdinand F., “Systems Analysis in University Libraries,” College and Research Libraries, Vol. 27, No.1 (January 1966), pp. 13-18. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1459. Lincoln, Yvonna S., Egon E. Gubo, “Research, Evaluation, and Policy Analysis: Heuristics for Disciplined Inquiry,” Policy Studies Review, Vol. 5, No. 3 (February 1986), pp. 546-565. Photocopy, with a few marks in red.
1460. Linneman, Robert E., and John D. Kennell, “Shirt-Sleeve Approach to Long-Range Plans,” Harvard Business Review (March-April 1977), pp. 141-150. Photocopy.
1461. Linneman, Robert E., and Harold E. Klein, “The Use of Multiple Scenarios by U.S. Industrial Companies,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 12, No. 1 (February 1979), pp. 83-93. Photocopy.
1462. Linstone, Harold A., “Four American Futures: Reflections on the Role of Planning,” in Marvin J. Cetron and Bodo Bartocha (eds.), Technology Assessment in a Dynamic Environment (London: Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1973), pp. 933-992. Photocopy.
1463. Livingston, Dennis, “Science Fiction Models of World Future Order Systems,” International Organization, Vol. 25, No. 2 (1971), pp. 254-270. Reprint.
1464. Lorange, Peter, and Richard F. Vancil, “How To Design a Strategic Planning System,” Harvard Business Review (September-October 1976), pp. 75-81. Tear sheets.
1465. Lovati, Jean M., “The Unemployment Rate as an Economic Indicator,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (September 1976). 9 pp. Reprint.
1466. Love, John, “Search for Tomorrow,” TWA Ambassador (November 1980), pp. 43-48. Photocopy.
1467. Luttrell, Clifton B., “The Russian Wheat Deal—Hindsight vs. Foresight,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (October 1973), pp. 2-9. Reprint Series No. 81. In card covers (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1468. MacNulty, Christine A. Ralph, “Scenario Development for Corporate Planning,” Futures (April 1977), pp. 128-138. Photocopy; faded but readable.
1469. Maddison, Michael, “The Case Against Tomorrow,” Political Quarterly (April 6, 1965), pp. 214-227. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format); two pages to a sheet.
1470. Mann, Harriet, Miriam Siegler, and Humphry Osmond, “The Psychotypology of Time,” in H. Yaker, H. Osmond, and F. Cheek (eds.), The Future of Time (Garden City, NY, 1971), pp. 142-178. Photocopy.
1471. Maitlis, Sally, and Thomas B. Lawrence, Orchestral Manoeuvres in the Dark: Understanding Failure in Organizational Strategising (Vancouver: Faculties of Business and of Commerce and Business Administration, University of British Columbia, n.d. [2000?]). 46 pp. Photocopy. Underlining and annotations in pencil throughout.
1472. Marien, Michael (ed.), Essential Reading Survey: Consolidated Listing of Round 1 Nominations (Syracuse, NY: Educational Policy Research Center, Syracuse University Research Corporation, June 7, 1972). 38 pp. Photocopy.
1473. Marien, Michael, "Touring Futures: An Incomplete Guide to the Literature," The Futurist, Vol. 17, No. 2 (April 1987), pp. 12-21. Photocopy. Underlining in red ink.
1474. Markley, O. W., "Conducting a Situation Audit: A Case Study," in Robert L. Heath et al., Strategic Issues Management: How Organizations Influence and Respond to Public Interests and Policies (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers, 1988), pp. 137-164. Reprint (8-1/2 x 11" format), two pages per sheet.
1475. Markley, O. W., "Explaining and Implementing Futures Research," in Howard F. Didsbury, Jr. (ed.), The Future: Opportunity Not Destiny (Bethesda, MD: World Future Society, 1989), pp. 183-213. Reprint (8-1/2 x 11" format).
1476. Markley, O. W., "Using Depth Intuition in Creative Problem-Solving and Strategic Innovation," in Sidney J. Parnes (ed.), Source Book for Creative Problem-Solving (Buffalo, NY: Creative Education Foundation Press, 1992), pp. 330-340.
1477. Martin, Roger, "Changing the Mind of the Corporation," Harvard Business Review (November-December 1993). Photocopy of the HBR reprint version (8-1/2 x 11" format). 8 pp.
1478. Mason, Richard O., Ian I. Mitroff, and Vincent P. Barabba, "Creating the Manager's Plan Book: A New Route to Effective Planning." Planning Review (July 1980), pp. 11-16, 47. Photocopy.
1479. Mazur, Laura, "Back from the Future," Marketing Business (December 1992-January 1993), pp. 24-27.
1480. McCloskey, Donald N., "The Art of Forecasting: From Ancient to Modern Times," The Cato Journal, Vol. 12, No. 1 (Spring-Summer 1992), pp. 23-43. Downloaded version (8-1/2 x 11" format); pencil annotations throughout.
1481. McDermott, W. Basil, "Foresight Is an Illusion," Long Range Planning, Vol. 29, No, 2 (1996), pp. 190-194. Photocopy.
1482. McGregor, Douglas, "The Major Determinants of the Prediction of Social Events," Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, Vol. 38 (April 1938), pp. 179-204. Photocopy; faded but still readable. Pencil notations and underlining throughout.
1483. McHale, John, "Forecasting and Futures Research," Society, Vol. 12, No. 5 (July-August 1975). 7 pp. Reprint.
1484. McHale, John, "The Future of Art and Mass Culture," Futures (June 1978), pp. 178-190. Reprint.
1485. McMaster, Mike, "Foresight: Exploring the Structure of the Future," Long Range Planning, Vol. 29, No. 2 (1996), pp. 149-155. Photocopy.
1486. McNees, Stephen K., "The Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Forecasts," New England Economic Review (September/October 1973), pp. 3-27. In entire issue.
1487. McNees, Stephen K., "The Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Forecasts," New England Economic Review (September/October 1973), pp. 3-27. In entire issue. Another copy of the preceding.
1488. McNees, Stephen K., "How Accurate Are Economic Forecasts?" New England Economic Review (November/December 1974), pp. 2-19. Tear sheets.
1489. McNees, Stephen K., "The Optimists and Pessimists: Can We Tell Whose Forecast Will Be Better?" New England Economic Review (May/June 1981), pp. 5-14. In entire issue.
1490. McNees, Stephen K., "The Recent Record of Thirteen Forecasters," New England Economic Review (September/October 1981), pp. 5-21. In entire issue.
1491. McNees, Stephen K., and John Ries, "The Track Record of Macroeconomic Forecasts," New England Economic Review (November/December 1983), pp. 5-18. In the entire issue.
1492. McNemar, Quinn, "Opinion-Attitude Methodology," Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 43, No. 4 (July 1946), pp. 289-374. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 14" format); two pages to a sheet.
1493. Mellor, D. H., "The Possibility of Prediction," Annual Philosophical Lecture, Proceedings of the British Academy, London, Vol. 65 (1979). Reprint in soft covers by Oxford University Press, 1981. 16 pp.
1494. Melzer, Bruce, "Scenario Planning," CIO Insight, Vol. 1, No. 2 (June 1, 2001). 8 pp. Downloaded version.
1495. Mendell, Jay S., and Alfred W. Mueller, "Social and Technological Intelligence," Technology Assessment, vol. 2, No. 1 (1973), pp. 47-59. Blueline copy; fading but still readable.
1496. Mercer, David, "Scenarios Made Easy," Long Range Planning, Vol. 28, No. 4 (August 1995), pp. 81-86. Photocopy.
1497. Mesthene, Emmanuel G., How Technology Will Shape the Future, Reprint No. 5 (Cambridge: Harvard University Program on Technology and Society, 1968). 24 pp. Card covers, punched for comb binding, but also saddle-stapled.
1498. Meyer, Laurence H., "Start with a Paradigm, End with a Story: The Value of Model-based Forecasting and Policy Analysis," Paper presented before the Stern Graduate School of Business, New York University, New York, September 30, 1999. 11 pp. Downloaded version.
1499. Michael, Donald N., "Some Factors Tending To Limit the Utility of the Social Scientist in Military Systems Analysis," Operations Research, Vol. 5, No. 1 (February 1957), pp. 90-96. Photocopy (two pages per sheet).
1500. Miles, Raymond E., Charles C. Snow, Alan D. Meyer, and Henry J. Coleman, Jr., "Organizational Strategy, Structure, and Process," Academy of Management Review, Vol. 3, No. 3 (July 1978), pp. 546-562. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11" format), two pages per sheet, Three-hole punched; underlined throughout.
1501. Minder, Thomas, "Library Systems Analyst—A Job Description," College and Research Libraries, Vol. 27, No. 4 (July 1966), pp. 271-276. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11" format).
1502. Mintzberg, Henry, "Crafting Strategy," Harvard Business Review (July-August 1987), pp. 66-76. Photocopy.
1503. Mintzberg, Henry, "The Strategy Concept I: Five Ps for Strategy," California Management Review (Fall 1987), pp. 11-24. Photocopy. Three-hold punched.
1504. Mintzberg, Henry, "The Strategy Concept II: Another Look at Why Organizations Need Strategies," California Management Review (Fall 1987), pp. 25-32. Photocopy. Three-hold punched.
1505. Mintzberg, Henry, "Rethinking Strategic Planning, Part I: Pitfalls and Fallacies," Long Range Planning, Vol. 27, No. 3 (1994), pp. 12-21. Photocopy.
1506. Mintzberg, Henry, "Rethinking Strategic Planning, Part II: New Roles for Planners," Long Range Planning, Vol. 27, No. 3 (1994), pp. 22-30. Photocopy.
1507. Mitchell, R. B., J. Tydeman, and R. Curnow, "Scenario Generation: Limitations and Developments in Cross-Impact Analysis," Futures (June 1977), pp. 205-215. Photocopy.
1508. Mitroff, Ian I., and Murray Turoff, "Technological Forecasting and Assessment: Science and/or Myth?" Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 5, No. 2 (1973), pp. 113-134, Photocopy.
1509. Mitroff, Ian I., Vincent P. Barabba, and Ralph H. Kilmann, "The Application of Behavioral and Philosophical Technologies to Strategic Planning: A Case Study of a Large Federal Agency," Management Science, Vol. 24, No. 1 (September 1977), pp. 44-58. Photocopy.
1510. Mitroff, Ian I., James R. Emshoff, and Ralph H. Kilmann, "Assumptional Analysis: A Methodology for Strategic Problem Solving," Management Science, Vol. 25, No. 6 (July 1979), pp. 583-593. Photocopy.
1511. Mitroff, Ian I., Why Our Old Pictures of the World Don't Work Any More, or Why It's Become So Difficult To Believe in Traditional Research (Los Angeles: Center for Effective Organizations, School of Business Administration, University of Southern California, November 1983). 27 pp. In CEO covers; corner-stapled (8-1/2 x 11" format).
1512. Moore, Geoffrey H., "Economic Forecasting: How Good a Track Record?" The Morgan Guaranty Survey (January 1975), pp. 5-8. In entire issue.
1513. Morgenstern, Oskar, "Economic Data and Economic Theory," in Morgenstern's On the Accuracy of Economic Observations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1963), Chap. 5, pp. 88-98. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11" format), two pages to a sheet.
1514. Morris, D. E. A., "A Case for Forecasting: The British Have Tried It and Find That It Works," World, Vol. 12, No. 4 (Autumn 1978), pp. 10-13. Tear sheets.
1515. Morrison, James, Annotated Bibliography of Literature on Social Indicators, Future Studies, and Policy Analysis, Technical Report 509 (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute, November 1980). Soft cover, side stapled. ix + 72 pp. (8-1/2 x 11" format).
1516. Morrison, James L., "Environmental Scanning," in Meredith A. Whitely, John D. Porter, and Robert H. Fenske (eds.), The Primer for Institutional Research (Tallahassee, FL: The Association of Institutional Research, 1992), pp. 86-99. Photocopy.
1517. Morrison, James L., and George Keller, "Newest Tool: The Institutional Vulnerability Audit," Planning for Higher Education, Vol. 21 (Winter 1992-1993), pp. 27-34. Photocopy.
1518. Morse, Richard S., "The Technology Gap," Industrial Management Review (Spring 1967), pp. 83-89. Reprint in IMR covers.
1519. Murphy, Gardner, "Precognition" and "An Interpretation," Chaps. 5 and 7 in Gardner Murphy and Laura A. Dale, Challenge of Psychical Research (New York: Harper & Row, 1961), pp. 125-155 and pp. 274-291. Photocopy; two pages to a sheet.
1520. Murphy, M. K., et al., "Consensus Development Methods and Their Use in Clinical Guideline Development," Health Technology Assessment, Vol. 2, No. 3 (March 1998). Downloaded version of about 25 pp. on methodology, plus the bibliography. Pencil notations and underlining.
1521. Murnighan, J. Keith, "Group Decision Making: What Strategies Should You Use?" Management Review (February 1981), pp. 55-62. Reprint. Some underlining in pencil.
1522. Myers, James H., and Edward Tauber, "Benefit Structure Analysis," in Myers and Tauber, Market Structure Analysis (American Marketing Association, n.d. [1972?]), Chap. 8, pp. 111-137. Photocopy.
1523. Nagel, Stuart S., Basic Literature in Policy Studies: A Comprehensive Bibliography (Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1984). Photocopy of the first three sections: "Concepts and Goals," "The Research Process," and "The Policy Process." 80 pp. Photocopy (two pages to an 8-1/2 x 11" sheet).
1524. Nakamura, Leonard, "Intangibles: What Put the New in the New Economy?" Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review (July/August 1999), pp. 3-16. Tear sheets.
1525. Naylor, Thomas H., "The Future of Corporate Planning Models," Managerial Planning, Vol. 24, No. 5 (March-April 1976), pp. 1-9, 13. Tear sheets.
1526. Nees, Danielle B., and Larry E. Greiner, "Seeing Behind the Look-Alike Management Consultants," Organizational Dynamics (Winter 1985), pp. 68-79. Reprint (8-1/2 x 11" format).
1527. Nieburg, H. L., "The Putsch against McNamara," The Nation (December 26, 1966), pp. 696-701. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11" format).
1528. Nisenoff, Norman, Development and Implications of a Technique for Quantifying Technology, Paper presented at the NATO Advanced Institute on Industrial Technology Transfer, Les Arcs, France (Arlington, VA: Forecasting International, July 2, 1975). 40 pp. Bound in Fl covers (8-1/2 x 11" format).
1529. North, Gary, "The Dawn of a New Era," Remnant Review, Vol. 7, No. 18 (September 19, 1980), pp. 1-6. Entire issue. Photocopy.
1530. Novick, David, et al., The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 36, No. 4 (November 1954), and following. A series of articles and pages as indicated below. Approximately 50 pages altogether. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11" format). Occasional pencil marks.
1531. Oaster, T. R. F., "Number of Alternatives per Choice Point and Stability of Likert-Type Scales," Perceptual and Motor Skills, Vol. 68 (1989), pp. 549-550. Photocopy.
1532. Othick, John. "Development Indicators and the Historical Study of Human Welfare: Towards a New Perspective," Journal of Economic History, Vol. 43, No. 1 (March 1983), pp. 63-70. Photocopy.
1533. Palmer, Michael, and Gregory Schmid, "Planning with Scenarios: The Banking World of 1985," Futures (December 1976), pp. 472-484. Photocopy.
1534. Pearlstein, Steven, "Tough Calls in Economic Forecasting: Seers Often Peer into Cracked Crystal Balls," Washington Post (January 15, 2001), p. A l +. Downloaded copy; 4 pp.
1535. Pearce, John A., II, "Selecting among Alternative Grand Strategies," California Management Review, Vol. 24, No. 3 (Spring 1982), pp. 23-31. Photocopy; three-hole punched. Underlining throughout.
1536. Pearson, Conrad E., "An Expert Panel Model for Assessing Political Risk," Chapter in book of unrecorded title or date [1980?]. 17 pp. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format); two pages to a sheet; some clipping.
1537. Pekar, Peter, Jr., and Stan Abraham, “Is Strategic Management Living Up to Its Promise? Long Range Planning, Vol. 28, No. 5 (1995), pp. 32-44. Photocopy.
1538. Perelman, Lewis J., Closing Education’s Technology Gap, Briefing Paper No. 111 (Indianapolis: Hudson Institute, November 28, 1989). 12 pp. Self-covered saddle-stapled document (8-1/2 x 11″ format). Pencil underlining and notes throughout.
1539. Perelman, Lewis J., The “Acanemia” Deception: How the Myth that America “Lags” in Education Spending Threatens To Undermine National Competitiveness, Briefing Paper No. 120 (Indianapolis: Hudson Institute, November 28, 1989). 27 pp. Self-covered saddle-stapled document (8-1/2 x 11″ format). Pencil underlining and notes throughout.
1540. Perelman, Lewis J., “The Value of Business Intelligence,” New Management (Spring 1983). 6 pp. Photocopy reprint.
1541. Perrow, Charles, “Is Business Really Changing?” Organizational Dynamics, Vol. 3, No. 1 (Summer 1974), pp. 31-44. Photocopy; underlined in red ink throughout.
1542. Petersen, John L., and Bernard F. McMahon, A New Scenario-Based Long Range Planning Process: Showing the Way to the Future (Arlington, VA: The Arlington Institute, September 1991). Soft cover; perfect bound. 60 pp. (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1543. Peterson, William H., “The Future and the Futurists,” Harvard Business Review, Vol. 45, No. 6 (November 1967), pp. 168-170, 172, 181-182, 185-186. Photocopy.
1544. Phillips, Warren R., and David McCormick, Measuring Information Content in Long-Range Forecasts ,Military Issues Research Memorandum ACN 78035 (Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, Army War College, July 6, 1976). iv + 17 pp. Photocopy (two pages to an 8-1/2 x 11″ sheet).
1545. Platt, John, “What We Must Do: A Mobilization of Scientists as in Wartime May Be the Only Way To Solve Our Crisis Problems,” manuscript copy of Platt’s famous essay, published in Science, November 28, 1969. 32 pp. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format); spring-clipped.
1546. Platt, John, “Hierarchical Restructuring,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (November 1970). 6 pp. Reprint.
1547. Popper, Karl R., “Critiques of Classical Theories of History,” in Patrick Gardiner (ed.), Theories of History (Glencoe, IL: The Free Press, 1959), pp. 275-285. Photocopy. Pencil marks throughout.
1548. Porter, Alan L., and Michael J. Detampel, “Technology Opportunities Analysis,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 49 (1995), pp. 237-255. Reprint.
1549. Post, James E., “The Challenge of Managing under Social Uncertainty,” Business Horizons, Vol. 20 (August 1977), pp. 51-60. Photocopy.
1550. Radin, Dean, and Roger Nelson, “Meta-Analysis of Mind-Matter Interaction Experiments: 1959-2000,” downloaded paper, no published source or date indicated. 11 pp.
1551. Raynaud, Hervé, “Long-Range Forecasting within Organizations,” Futures (October 1976), pp. 420-427. Photocopy.
1552. Rea, Robert, and Peter S. Miller, “The Multiple Contingency Concept of Long-Range Technological Planning,” in James R. Bright and Milton E. F. Schoeman (eds.), A Guide to Practical Technological Forecasting (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1973), pp. 208-222. Photocopy (faded but readable).
1553. Redfield, Robert, “The Art of Social Science,” The American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 54, No. 3 (November 1948), pp. 181-190. Photocopy. Underlined in red ink.
1554. Renfro, William L., Foresight: Congress Looks to the Future, Issue Brief No. 1B77007 (Washington, DC: Futures Research Group, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Updated July 28, 1977). In CRS covers; corner stapled (8-1/2 x 11″ format). 15 pp.
1555. Renfro, William L., Foresight: Congress Looks to the Future, Issue Brief No. 1B77007 (Washington, DC: Futures Research Group, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Updated January 13, 1980).
1556. Renfro, William L., “Forecasting the Impact of Public Policies,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 13 (August 1980), pp. 80-89. Photocopy.
1557. Renshaw, Edward F., “Forecasting GNP: The Revised US Index of 12 Leading Economic Indicators,” Futures (December 1984), pp. 627-632. Photocopy.
1558. Rhyne, Russell, “Technological Forecasting Within Alternative Whole Futures Projections,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 6, No. 2 (1974), pp. 133-162. Photocopy.
1559. Richardson, L. F., “Is It Possible To Prove Any General Statements about Historical Fact?” British Journal of Sociology, Vol. 3 (1952), pp. 77-84, Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1560. Riven, Patrick, Principles of Model Building (Wiley, 1972), Chap. 1, ”The Model in Science,” pp. 1-14, and Chap. 11, “Simulation Principles,” pp. 109-115. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format); two pages to a sheet. Three-hole drilled.
1561. Rivlin, Alice M., “Clearinghouse on the Future,” presentation at a conference sponsored by the Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future, Washington, DC, June 14, 1978. 15 pp.
1562. Robinson, John, Delphi and Group Dynamics: A Case Study. 9 pp. Photocopy. Date and publisher not recorded (perhaps 1975, perhaps Dames & Moore).
1563. Rojas, Billy, Who Is Who in Educational Futuristics (Pippa Passes, KY: Alice Lloyd College, February 1, 1972). Original photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format). 13 pp.
1564. Roney, C. W., “Changing the Plan of Business,” Managerial Planning, Vol. 26, No. 1 (July/August 1977), pp. 1-8, 39. Photocopy.
1565. Rose, David J., “Continuity and Change: Thinking in New Ways about Large and Persistent Problems,” Technology Review (February-March 1981), pp. 53-67. Photocopy.
1566. Rosen, M. H., and H. T. Darracott, Planning a More Effective Army (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office: U.S. Army Advanced Materiel Concepts Agency, April 1970). 13 pp. Soft cover (8-1/2 x 11″ format); corner-stapled.
1567. Rothstein, Robert L., “Planning in Foreign Affairs,” Policy Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 4 (December 1973), pp. 453-465. Photocopy.
1568. Rumbaugh, Lynn H., A Look at US Army Operations Research—Past and Present, Combat Systems Technical Paper RAC-TP-102 (McLean, VA: Research Analysis Corporation, April 1964). vi + 19 pp. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1569. Russell, Craig J., and Philip Bobco, “Moderated Regression Analysis and Likert Scales: Too Close for Comfort,” Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 77, No. 3 (1992), pp. 336-342. Photocopy on 8-1/2 x 14″ paper; faded but readable.
1570. Sage, Daniel D., and Richard B. Chobot, “The Scenario as an Approach to Studying the Future,” in Henley, Stephen P., and James R. Yates (eds.), Futurism in Education: Methodologies (Berkeley, CA: McCutchan Publishing Corporation, 1974), pp. 161-178. Photocopy.
1571. Samuels, Warren J., “Interrelations Between Legal and Economic Processes,” The Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 14, No. 2 (October 1971), pp. 435-450. Tear sheets.
1572. Sarin, Rakesh K., “A Sequential Approach to Cross-Impact Analysis,” Futures (February 1978), pp. 62-63. Photocopy.
1573. Savransky, Semyon D., “TRIZ: The Methodology of Inventive Problem Solving,” seven page download. Also with a few pages of bibliographical references.
1574. Schlegel, Gordon, “Vector Autoregressive Forecasts of Recession and Recovery: Is Less More?” Economic Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (Quarter II, 1985), pp. 2-12. Tear sheets.
1575. Schlesinger, James R., “Quantitative Analysis and National Security,” World Politics, Vol. 15, No. 2 (January 1963), pp. 295-315. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1576. Schlesinger, James R., “Systems Analysis and the Political Process,” The Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 11 (October 1968), pp. 281-298, Reprint.
1577. Schoeffler, Sidney, Robert D. Buzzell, and Donald F. Heany, “Impact of Strategic Planning on Profit Performance,” Harvard Business Review (March-April 1974), 134-145. Reprint, in HBR cover; saddle-stapled.
1578. Schoemaker, Paul J. H., “Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking,” Sloan Management Review (Winter 1995). Downloaded version; 14 pp.
1579. Schwarz, B., “Long-Range Planning in the Public Sector,” Futures (April 1977), pp. 115-127. Photocopy.
1580. Scott, John, “Rational Choice Theory,” preprint of chapter to appear in G. Browning et al., Theory and Society: Understanding the Present (Sage Publications, 1999). 10 pp. Downloaded version.
1581. Seigle, John W., “The Myth of Decision by Computer,” Army, Vol. 14, No. 10 (May 1964), pp. 67-73. Photocopy; faded but readable.
1582. Seligman, Daniel, “McNamara’s Management Revolution,” Fortune, Vol. 72, No. 1 (July 1965), pp. 117-120, 246-250. Photocopy.
1583. Shils, Edward, “The Intellectuals and the Future,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. XXIII, No. 8 (October 1967), pp. 7-14. Photocopy. Underlined in red ink throughout.
1584. Shimada, Shozo, A Hybrid Cross-Impact Matrix Method (Tokyo: Central Research Laboratory, Hitachi, March 1971). 14 pp. Soft cover; A4 size. With letter of transmittal, Some underlining in red ink.
1585. Siegel, Irving H., “Technological Change and Long-Run Forecasting,” The Journal of Business, Vol. 26, No. 3 (July 1953), pp. 141-156. Photocopy.
1586. Sill, Keith, “Forecasts, Indicators, and Monetary Policy,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Review (May-June 1999), pp. 3-14.
1587. Sillin, Lelan F., Jr., “A Project for Prometheus,” Paper presented at the Engineering Foundation Conference, Andover, NH, August 16, 1971. 23 pp. Printed; soft cover; saddle stapled.
1588. Simmons, William W., with Richard B. Elsberry, “Vision Quest: Long-Range Planning at IBM,” The Futurist, Vol. 22, No. 5 (September-October 1988), pp. 17-22. Photocopy. Some yellow highlighting.
1589. Simms, Daniel M., “What Is a Systems Analyst?” Special Libraries, Vol. 59, No. 9 (November 1968), pp. 718-728. Photocopy.
1590. Simon, Julian L., “Global Confusion, 1980: A Hard Look at the Global 2000 Report, The Public Interest (1980), pp. 3-20. Photocopy, with occasional ink comments and underlining.
1591. Slichter, Sumner Huber, “Long-Term Economic Trends,” in Alvin H. Hansen and Richard V. Clemente (eds.), Readings in Business Cycles and National Income (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1953). Photocopy.
1592. Smallwood, Richard D,, and Peter A. Morris, “A Task Force Decision Analysis,” Operations Research, Vol. 28, No. 1 (January-February 1980), pp. 60-80. Photocopy.
1593. Smart, Carolyne, and Ilan Vertinsky, “Designs for Crisis Decision Units,” Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 22 (December 1977), pp. 640-657. Photocopy.
1594. Sobin, Bernard, “Cost Effectiveness Analysis,” Paper presented at the Electronic Industries Association Symposium on the Methodology of Weapon System Decisions, November 26, 1962. 13 pp. Photocopy.
1595. Sommer, Dale W., “Cycle Forecasting Spots Trends,” Industry Week (April 25, 1977), pp. 71-75. Photocopy.
1596. Spicer, Michael, “The Role of the ‘Systems’ Approach in Politics,” Technology and Society (Spring 1968), pp. 39-43. Photocopy. Some underlining.
1597. Stander, A., and T. Rickards, “The Oracle That Failed,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 8, No. 5 (October 1975), pp. 13-17. Photocopy.
1598. Stix, Gary, “Domesticating Cyberspace,” Scientific American (August 1993), pp. 101-110. Photocopy.
1599. Stover, John, Probabilistic System Dynamics (Glastonbury, CT: The Futures Group, March 1975). 15 pp. Photocopy; self-covered; corner-stapled.
1600. Strategic Futures Team, Policy and Innovation Unit, UK Cabinet Office, The Future and How To Think about it (PIU, 2000?). 20 pp. (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1601. Strategy Futures Team, Performance and Innovation Unit, UK Cabinet Office, A Futurist’s Toolbox: Methodologies in Futures Work (London: PIU, September 2001). 20 pp. (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1602. Sutherland, John W., “Architecting the Future: A Delphi Based Paradigm for Normative System-Building,” in Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff (eds.), The Delphi Method (1975), pp. 463-486. Photocopy.
1603. Tabb, William K., “We Are All Socialists Now: Corporate Planning for America,” Social Policy, Vol. 5, No. 6 (March-April 1975), pp. 27-34. Photocopy.
1604. Tay, Anthony S., and Kenneth F. Wallis, “Density Forecasting,” in M. P. Clements and D. F. Hendry (eds.), Companion to Economic Forecasting (London: Blackwell, 2002), pp. 45-68. Downloaded version.
1605. Taylor, Charles W., “Panel Consensus Technique: A New Approach to Decision making,” The Journal of Creative Behavior, Vol. 6, No. 3 (Third Quarter 1972), pp. 187-198. Reprint.
1606. Tetlock, Phillip E., Randall S. Peterson, Charles McGuire, Shi-jie Chang, and Peter Feld, “Assessing Political Group Dynamics: A Test of the Groupthink Model,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 63, No. 3 (1992), pp. 403-419. Photocopy (a final page or two in the list of references is missing).
1607. Thomas, Clayton J., and Walter L. Deemer, Jr., “The Role of Operational Gaming in Operations Research,” Operations Research, Vol. 5, No. 1 (February 1957), pp. 1-27. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format); two pages to a sheet.
1608. Tinbergen, J., “Critical Remarks on Some Business-Cycle Theories,” in Alvin H. Hansen and Richard V. Clemente (eds.), Readings in Business Cycles and National Income (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1953), pp. 357-375. Photocopy.
1609. Torgerson, Douglas, “Priest and Jester in Policy Sciences: Developing the Focus of Inquiry,” Policy Sciences, Vol. 25 (1992), pp. 225-235. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format), two pages to a sheet.
1610. Toch, Hans H., “The Perception of Future Events: Case Studies in Social Prediction,” Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 22 (Spring 1958), pp. 57-66. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format), with two pages per sheet.
1611. Towells, Steve, “From Planning to Strategic Intent,” Strategy Magazine, Issue No. 1 (2003), pp. 20-24. Entire issue.
1612. Traub, James, “Futurology: The Rise of the Predicting Profession,” Saturday Review (December 1979), pp. 24-31. Photocopy.
1613. Tribus, Myron, “Deming’s Way,” typed manuscript, April 1982. 8 pp. Some notes and underlining in red ink.
1614. Trisoglio, Alex, Managing Complexity, Working Paper No. 1 (London: Research Programme on Complexity, London School of Economics and Political Science, July 17, 1995). 37 pp. Soft cover (A4 format); side-stapled.
1615. Turner, Robert C., “Should You Take Business Forecasting Seriously?” Business Horizons (April 1978), pp. 64-72. Photocopy.
1616. Tydeman, John, and Kathi Spangler, “Building Scenarios,” Business Tomorrow (February 1979), pp. 7-8. In entire issue, which presents a variety of other articles.
1617. Valaskakis, Kimon, “The Chronospace: A Proposed Methodology for Futures Studies,” Futures (August 1978), pp. 320-330. Photocopy.
1618. Van de Ven, Andrew H,, and André L. Delbecq, “The Effectiveness of Nominal, Delphi, and Interacting Group Decision Making Processes,” Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 17, No. 4 (December 1974), pp. 605-621. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format); two pages to a sheet.
1619. Van Doom, Jozef W. M., and F. A. van Vught, “Futures Research in the Netherlands, 1960-1980,” Futures (December 1983), pp. 504-516. Reprint by INNOTREND Scanning Bureau in The Netherlands; A4 size.
1620. Van Tilburg, J. J., and F. A. van Vught, Futures Scanning and the Scenario Method as a Tool of Management (Enschede, The Netherlands: INNOTREND Scanning Bureau, n.d. [1989?]). 12 pp. Self-covered, corner-stapled (A4 size).
1621. Van Vught, F. A., “Pitfalls of Forecasting: Fundamental Problems for the Methodology of Forecasting from the Philosophy of Science,” Futures (April 1987), pp. 184-196. Reprint by INNOTREND Scanning Bureau in The Netherlands; A4 size.
1622. Wachs, Martin, “Forecasts, Advocacy, and Ethics in Policymaking” (February 1981), “Forecasting, Ethics, and Paradigms of Planning” (February 1981), and “System Dynamics: Ethical Dimensions of Global Models” (March 1980), Draft manuscripts for a book project, UCLA. 16, 16, and 24 pp., respectively. Photocopy.
1623. Wakeland, Wayne, “QS1M2: A Low Budget Approach to Modelling and Forecasting,” Appendix D in a document whose title, publisher, and date were not recorded (perhaps 1975). 34 pp. Photocopy; clip-bound.
1624. Waller, Robert J., “The Synthesis of Hierarchical Structures: Technique and Applications,” Decision Sciences, Vol. 7, No. 4 (October 1976), pp. 659-674. Photocopy.
1625. Waller, Robert J., “Contextual Relations and Mathematical Relations in Interpretive Structural Modeling,” 13 pp. Photocopy. Some marks in red ink. Corner-stapled typescript; for publication in IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics. June 1979.
1626. Waller, Robert J., “Comparing and Combining Structural Models of Complex Systems,” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. SMC-9, No. 9 (September 1979), pp. 580-586. Photocopy.
1627. Waller, Robert J., “Complexity and the Boundaries of Human Policy Making,” International Journal of General Systems, Vol. 9, No. 1 (1982), pp. 1-11.
1628. Ward, Bernie, “Thoughts for Our Tomorrows,” Sky (January 1983), pp. 44-48. Photocopy.
1629. Warnke, Dennis, “A Review of Bank Forecasting Models in Use Today,” American Bankers Association, February 9, 1981. 7 pp., including a detailed three-page table that compares models by provider, functionality, computer requirements, cost, and other variables. Typescript; corner stapled.
1630. Waskow, Arthur I., “The Historian’s Role in Futures Research,” Futures, Vol. 1, No. 2 (December 1968), pp. 117-124. Photocopy. Some underlining in ink.
1631. Weaver, W. Timothy, “The Delphi Forecasting Method,” Phi Delta Kappan (January 1971), pp. 267-271. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11″ format). 6 pp.
1632. Weiner, Edith, “Future Scanning for Trade Groups and Companies,” Harvard Business Review (September-October 1976), pp. 14, 174-175. Photocopy.
1633. Weingand, Darlene E., “Futures Research Methodologies: Linking Today’s Decisions with Tomorrow’s Possibilities,” Sixty-First IFLA General Conference, Conference Proceedings (August 1995). Photocopy. 9 pp.
1634. Wells, H. G., “Mind at the End of Its Tether,” in H. G. Wells, Mind at the End of Its Tether and the Happy Turning: A Dream of Life (New York: Didier, 1946), pp. v-vii and 1-34. Photocopy (in 8-1/2 x 11″ format with two pages on a sheet). Some pencil marks in the margins.
1635. Wells, H. G., “The Discovery of the Future,” Nature, Vol. 65 (February 6, 1902), pp. 326-331. Photocopy. Underlining in red ink.
1636. Wenk, Edward, Jr., “The Political Limits to Forecasting” (1977), reprinted in Tom Whiston (ed.), The Uses and Abuses of Forecasting (New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers, 1979), pp. 289-322. Photocopy. Some underlining and marks in the margins.
1637. Wheelwright, Steven C., and Darral G. Clarke, “Corporate Forecasting: Promise and Reality,” Harvard Business Review, Vol. 54, No. 6 (November-December 1976), pp. 40-64, 198. In entire issue.
1638. White, Louise G., “Policy Analysis as Discourse,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Vol. 13, No. 3 (Summer 1994), pp. 506-524. Tear sheets.
1639. Wills, Garry, “What Makes a Good Leader?” The Atlantic Monthly (April 1994), pp. 63-80. Tear sheets.
1640. Wilson, Albert, “Prophets, Planners and Futurists,” 10 pp. Photocopy; three-hole punched. Original source and date not indicated (probably 1976).
1641. Wilson, Ian H., William R. George, and Paul J. Soloman, “Strategic Planning for Marketers,” Business Horizons (August 1979), pp. 27-29. Photocopy (faded but readable); underlined.
1642. Woelfel, Joseph, “Artificial Neural Networks in Policy Research: A Current Assessment,” Journal of Communication, Vol. 43, No. 1 (Winter 1993), pp. 63-80. Photocopy.
1643. Wohlstetter, Albert, Defense Decisions: Design vs. Analysis, Abstract of a paper presented at the Second International Conference on Operational Research, Aix-en-Provence, France, September 1960. Soft cover. 6 pp.
1644. Womack, Abner W., “Social Indicators, Basebook, Baseline, and Indicator Model,” in Steve A. Holbrook and Teddee E. Grace (eds.), Increasing Understanding of Public Problems and Policies (Oak Brook, IL: Farm Foundation, January 1993), pp. 195-213. Photocopy, two pages per sheet (8-1/2 x 11 format), backed up.
1645. Woods, Donald H., “Improving Estimates that Involve Uncertainty,” New Insights for Executive Achievement (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School, 1968), pp. 90-97. Photocopy. Some underlining marks in the margin in red ink.
1646. Woodward, C. Vann, “The Future of the Past,” The American Historical Review, Vol. 75, No. 3 (February 1970), pp. 711-726. Photocopy. Underlined throughout in red ink.
1647. Wynn, Mark, with Mary F. Smith, The International and Domestic Event Coding System (INDECS), Research Memorandum RM-303 (Arlington, VA: Policy Sciences Department, Consolidated Analysis Centers, Inc., January 1973). ix + 35 pp. Soft cover; saddle-stapled (8-1/2 x 11″ format).
1648. Wynn, Mark, Theodore Rubin, and G. Robert Franco, “New Ways To Measure and Forecast International Affairs,” The Futurist, Vol. 7, No. 6 (December 1973), pp. 244-249. Photocopy.
1649. Yin, Robert K., and Karen A. Heald, “Using the Cast Survey Method To Analyze Policy Studies,” Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 3 (September 1975), pp. 371-382. ‘Tear sheets.
1650. Yorkin, Nicole, “A Day in the Life: A Family of Four and Their Robots, 25 Years from Now,” Los Angeles Times Magazine (April 3, 1988), pp. 8-23. Photocopy (8-1/2 x 11” format).
1651. Zand, Dale E., and Richard E. Sorenson, “Theories of Change and the Effective Use of Management Science,” Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 20, No. 4 (December 1975), pp. 532-545. Tear sheets.
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